Correlation (Positive / Negative)

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Luca

Table of Contents

Introduction

The Hidden Relationships Between Markets

Price doesn’t move in isolation.
Pairs influence each other.
Sessions align and diverge.
Smart Money tracks these relationships,
because correlation reveals intent.

📍 Correlation is not prediction, it’s context.

What Is Correlation?

The Definition:

📊 Correlation measures how two currency pairs move
in relation to each other.

Positive Correlation:

Pairs move in the same direction.
Examples:

  • EURUSD ↔ GBPUSD
  • XAUUSD ↔ AUDUSD

Negative Correlation:

Pairs move in opposite directions.
Examples:

  • EURUSD ↔ USDCHF
  • GBPUSD ↔ USDJPY

 

💬 In simple terms:
Positive = moving together.
Negative = moving opposite.

📍 Smart Money uses correlation to confirm direction, not to guess it.

Why Correlation Matters

Correlation helps traders:

  • Avoid doubling risk on related pairs
  • Confirm directional bias
  • Spot early strength or weakness
  • Understand USD-driven market moves
  • Build higher-probability setups

💡 Correlation provides clarity before commitment.

How Traders Use Correlation

1️⃣ Check correlations before entering any trade
2️⃣ Confirm direction across positively-linked pairs
3️⃣ Look for opposite movement in negatively-linked pairs
4️⃣ Avoid stacking correlated positions
5️⃣ Journal correlation behavior by session

📍 Correlation protects your risk and sharpens your bias.

Example

Positive & Negative Correlation in Action

London open hits.

EURUSD pushes bullish.
GBPUSD follows positive correlation.

At the same time:
USDCHF drops aggressively — negative correlation.

This confirms broad USD weakness
and validates the bullish bias on EURUSD/GBPUSD.

💬 Correlation turns noise into context.

The Do Nots

Common Mistakes Traders Make

❌ Taking multiple trades on correlated pairs
❌ Ignoring correlation shifts during news
❌ Assuming correlation is always perfect
❌ Trading against USD strength
❌ Not journaling correlation inconsistencies

💬 The market gives clues, correlation is one of the clearest.

Final Thoughts

Correlation isn’t a strategy, it’s a filter.

It protects your risk, confirms your bias,
and strengthens every decision you make.

Smart Money doesn’t trade every pair,
they trade the ones that align.